Estimates pulled back to $110bn by 2017.
Juniper Research has today revised its forecasts for the international NFC market, scaling back its estimates for the North American and Western European markets from $180bn by 2017 to $110.
The report suggests that Apple’s decision to omit an NFC chipset from the iPhone 5 has significantly reduced retailer and brand confidence in the technology. This has lead to reduced POS (Point of Sale) rollouts and fewer NFC campaigns, which will ultimately lead to lower NFC visibility amongst consumers and fewer opportunities to make payments, threatening a cycle of “NFC indifference” in the short term.
Dr Windsor Holden, the report’s author, commented: “While many vendors have introduced NFC-enabled smartphones, Apple’s decision is a significant blow for the technology, particularly given its previous successes in educating the wider public about new mobile services. Without their support, it will be even more difficult to persuade consumers – and retailers – to embrace what amounts to a wholly new means of payment.”
The report also showed that markets in North America and Western Europe would be the most effected by Apple’s move, with transaction values exhibiting a “two year lag” on previous forecasts as retailers delay POS investments.
However, retail transactions in Japan and Korea are estimated to experience little or no impact from the decision, while Juniper’s research also observed that lower than expected adoption of Google Wallet allied to a delayed launch of the ISIS NFC project in the US would also have a detrimental effect on that market.