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What's going to be hot for mobile content in 2012?

SoftTalk Mobile
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Softtalk attempts a brave prediction at developments in the mobile entertainment industry - and hopes nobody reads the blog so it can’t be held to account.

Predicting the future is to the beginning of the New Year as processors are to mobile phones. So in the spirit of the times, it falls to Softalkmobile to endeavour not to make a fool of itself while trying to appear knowledgeable and informed.

That’s the rider out of the way, so let’s get serious. The pace at which the business of mobile entertainment has evolved is really only comparable to the speed at which Internet usage took off at the beginning of this century.

In 2001, 2.1 billion people were online out of a population of just over 6 billion. Also in 2001, Internet-based retail sales had climbed 1,200 per cent since 1997.

Fast forward to 2011 and the annual Christmas rush to online shopping is a billion dollar fact of life while the Internet has penetrated even the remotest and dustiest of communities. You’ll struggle to find an ATM machine in Srinagar, the ravaged capital of Kashmir, but you can take your pick from any number of Internet cafes.

In Europe, the number of subscribers to mobile networks is staggering. The Vodafone Group has over 129 million people using its networks. MTS Group, a Russian outfit, has over 79 million and Deutsche Telekom over 78 million. At the bottom of Europe’s top ten comes Telenor Group, with a measly, hardly worth mentioning, 26 million.

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I would say that on the vast continental plain of Europe the only people who appear not to be plugged into a mobile network are little old grannies and wobbly-necked babies. But I would probably be wrong. And like the Internet bug, the mobile bug spans the earth.

In a Wall Street Journal article, a 60-year old farmer from the desert state of Rajasthan, Balwant Singh Radev, said: I used to walk 10 to 15 kilometres just to listen to Hindi songs being played at parties and other local functions. With the cell phone... I can tune in any time I’m free.” Ditto for millions of other rural dwellers in India.

Aryan Kaganof, an international film maker, has created the world’s first mobile feature film, SMS Sugar Man. It’s a gritty, edgy narrative, set in urban South Africa and it unleashes the potential of TV on a smartphone. In reference to African audiences he says: “...with the right indigenous content producers can speak to millions of eager listeners.”

So the size of the mobile entertainment market and its potential is in no doubt, but what we’ve seen today is just the forerunner of what is to come. Kaganof’s film pushes back the boundaries of our expectations and could well be the herald for a new generation of mobile entertainment.

At the beginning of last year, Juniper Research Future Mobile Entertainment Awards 2011, hailed Ladbrokes, EA Mobile, Spotify and others as companies “poised to make considerable market impact in the future.” These companies have been among the first to forge a wide path in this world.

And the future is here to stay. It’s just that the eco-system is going to continue evolving.

During 2012, we can expect faster broadband speeds - think 4G - and certainly more devices. We’ll see the battle of blue chip beasts heat up. Intel has been threatening to release a smartphone for some time and has finally held good on its promise.  Reference designs have been sent to big manufacturers and by all accounts the Android-based handset packs quite a punch – blu-ray quality video, impressive camera action, and smooth and fast web browsing.

We could also see a move towards a more distributed network model and the emergence of a true world phone, for users to use where ever they go in the world without being hammered by outlandish roaming charges.

This would signify a major step in the industry, a landmark that could change the face of application and service development and distribution. Think of the vast movement of people in and out of countries - returning diaspora, floods of tourists, streams of jet lagged business travellers, all able to access local information apps without being hit by punitive charges.

We may also see the advent of the hybrid app. That is apps that are designed for use across different hardware platforms. In fact, we reckon this has got to be a nailed on certainty given the impending barrage of new form factors that is coming. The Intel AppUp developer program is an example of this emerging new dynamic, multiple apps for cross-platform devices, but it’s a question of how long before the wider market wakes up to it.

We’ll also see an increasingly swamped apps marketplace which means distribution channels are also going to come to more prominence. And not just in mainland Europe and the US. Eastern Europe and Asia are going to become hot spots and developers worth their salt may want to consider the enormous potential of these relatively new markets.

So there you have it, a head on the block range of predictions. And if none of this turns out to be true, Softtalkblog takes consolation in the fact that you’ll likely have forgotten even reading this blog by this time next week.

Happy New Year!

* This blog post is written by Softtalkmobile, and is sponsored by the Intel AppUp developer program, a single channel for distributing apps to multiple devices, multiple operating systems, and multiple app stores.

Tags: intel , Intel Developer Blog , softtalk , Intel AppUp

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