RBC publishes iCloud predictions, but do they add up?

Claims potential market of 150m iCloud users and $1.5bn of annual iTunes Match revenues.

Apple's upcoming iCloud service could reach 150 million users, while the iTunes Match music element could generate $1.5 billion of revenues a year, according to analyst firm RBC Capital Markets.

Here's the problem with these predictions, though: we're not sure if they add up. CNET has reported on the forecasts, which were based on a survey of 1,500 iPhone users surveyed earlier this month.

76% said that they will use the iCloud service, while 30% said they were likely to spend $24.99 a year on iTunes Match, which uses scan-and-match technology to match their music collections on Apple's servers, and make songs available to download across their devices.

The predictions of 150 million iCloud users and $1.5 billion of annual iTunes Match revenues appear to be based on Apple's official figure of 200 million iOS devices sold since the debut of the first iPhone. 76% of 200 million is more than 150 million people (the iCloud stat), and 30% of 200 million is 60 million, paying $25 a year to generate $1.5 billion (the iTunes Match stat).

Spotted the flaw yet? This logic is seemingly based on every one of those 200 million devices being sold to a unique individual. Yet for a user who has bought, say, two or three iPhones and an iPad, they will only count as a single iCloud user.