Informa says developed markets will see no more than two per cent CAGR in 2009 and could shrink thereafter.
New forecasts from Informa Telecoms & Media predict the value of mobile handset sales will not exceed two per cent CAGR in developed markets next year and, if the current economic slowdown persists, could even turn negative after 2009.Informa doesn't expect revenue growth from mobile phone sales to exceed two per cent CAGR in Western Europe, one per cent in North America and less than half a per cent in Japan between 2010 and 2013.
In these regions, the smartphone market will represent the major growth area, accounting for more than 55 per cent of total handset market value.
The good news is that overall global revenues from mobile phone sales are expected to grow at 6.8 per cent CAGR between 2007 and 2013, and should exceed $200 billion by the end of 2013.
That growth will be driven by emerging markets, with Brazil, Russia, India, China and Africa accounting for 60 per cent of sales in 2013.
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Informa points out that with handset volumes in developed markets reaching saturation, there's increasing competition between OEMs.
It says the current price war will only intensify at a time when new entrants such as Apple and Google are increasing pressure to reduce prices for feature phones and smartphones.
Malik Saadi, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, said: "With the ongoing fall of feature phone and smartphone ASPs, several leading handset vendors are now looking for new ways of controlling handset manufacturing costs in order to maintain margins.
“With this in mind, vendors have already shifted the majority of production plants into low labour cost regions such as China, Taiwan, India, Vietnam and Eastern Europe and now they have to play the only remaining card: lowering the bill they pay for chipsets and terminal software."
