Bullish forecast from Ovum despite culture of free.
Ovum says 35 per cent of revs will come from subscription services in Asia-Pacific, which means around 12bn will come from the rest of the world.
Assuming physical formats will continue their decline, this is a hefty fall from the $40bn the industry was worth in 1996.
The research firm is aware of the danger of file sharing, and also free legitimate services.
The combined effect of subscription services and free music is slowing growth in paid online music downloads, down to just 3 per cent in 2010 in the US.
Ovum analyst Mark Little said: “There is too much free music available in the digital economy and not just the illegal kind.
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"Free Internet radio such as Pandora or Grooveshark, and freemium on-demand music services such as Spotify, are offering free music without maximising advertising or premium subscription revenues for themselves or the industry.”
Ovum says Asia-Pacific revenues will grow at a CAGR of more than 40 per cent from 2011 to 2015, driven by technology giants Apple and Google, as well as Spotify.
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