Iâve got this apocalyptic theory about web 2.0. At first it was just running around my head, a nagging doubt that wouldnât go away.
Slowly I began to share it with frightened-looking colleagues. Then, I began to see others voicing similar thoughts. Perhaps I’m not delusional after all. Perhaps web 2.0 really is set for an almighty crash. A bit like, well, web 1.0.
My utter lack of faith in the current state of these new social media services began at Mobile World Congress as I fielded incessant questions about Twitter. I wasn’t a user then. I am now. Got to admit, it can be fun, but I still don’t get where the cash is coming from. I cannot conceive any meaningful revenue stream other than advertising.
And as we’ve seen from YouTube and Facebook – each immeasurably more sticky than Twitter – ad revenue is incapable of paying the bills.
What’s more, those bills are rising. YouTube and Facebook add users and content at a dizzying rate every day. But many of the new participants are from emerging markets, and therefore lack the disposable income to interest advertisers.
Pure cost, in other words.
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We can all construct elaborate theories about new business models, the power of free, etc, but in the end someone’s got to pay.
So is it really that outlandish to wonder whether these sites will soon say: that’s it you lot, pay us $5 a month or we’re going bust. It’s a topsy-turvy world where people pay £50 a month for a satellite TV subscription they hardly ever watch, but baulk at the mere mention of a fee for a service they organise their lives around.
So where does mobile stand in relation to this? Well, it could be a salvation of sorts. On mobile you can charge for bulk messaging, create mini games based on micro-payment, even chuck a few quid on the monthly sub for access. Operators already do it for Skype and Spinvox. It’s not that outlandish.
So there it is, out in the open: without drastic action web 2.0 is f**ked. I could get used to this plain speaking.
Next month I will explain why The Rolling Stones are now, and have always been, tedious fakes.
