Rich! Everyone's going to be rich!
UK analyst Wireless Expertise is the latest to try to put a number on future growth of the mobile applications market, claiming that it will leap from $4.66 billion this year to $16.6 billion by 2013.
That's global, as compared to yesterday's prediction by Yankee Group that the US apps market will be worth $4.2 billion by 2013.
Wireless Expertise's forecasts are based on an estimate that there'll be 1.6 billion smartphone users by 2013, making up 28-30% of the overall mobile market.
"We expect Apple to face tough competition from mobile operators, independent service providers and competing vendor application portals in the next 18-24 months," says CEO Anuj Khanna.
"Mobile operators have to adopt a dual app store strategy, using the now widely-accepted app store model in conjunction with a browser-based widget store, to provide the greatest potential for a mass-market proposition."
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Wireless Expertise also thinks there'll be a new wave of niche app stores, focusing on specific kinds of apps like games and location-based services.
A couple of things we're wondering about this new wave of app-focused analyst reports. First, how do these revenue projections break down between payments to download apps, in-app micro-transactions, and advertising or sponsorship revenues for free apps?
Second, is the mobile apps market going to be just about smartphones? Taking this report's 28-30% smartphone penetration prediction, how much money might be made from apps for the other 70-72% of handsets?
Anyway, Wireless Expertise has published its findings in a free report, which can be downloaded here.
