But social, dating and casual gaming apps will be big hits in 2010.
Getjar boss Ilja Laurs has predicted that at least 90% of mobile app stores will fail in the next 12-18 months, even as the successful stores dramatically change the mobile entertainment market.
Laurs, who is CEO of one of the more high-profile device-independent app stores, made the prediction in a list of forecasts for 2010.
He also thinks next year will be 'the year of the handset', with Apple's rivals focusing on features, design and the cool factor: "We're likely to see a much more competitive and level playing field."
Meanwhile, Laurs predicts that social, dating and casual gaming apps will be hugely popular in 2010, but ideally running across multiple platforms.
"The single platform approach can undoubtedly generate revenues, but as more and more consumers jump on the app bandwagon, those apps that operator on a variety of different platforms will be the ones that succeed," he says.
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Laurs thinks several app businesses will emerge making $10 million a year or more, but that in 2011 and 2012 the rollout of better billing will help app firms grow to $100 million businesses.
