At a conference I moderated recently a highly tech-literate analyst predicted that the time will come when consumers change their mobile operating systems like wallpapers.

He presented a commoditised future in which users choose their phone’s appearance, applications and underlying software in-store. What a load of old nonsense. How many domestic PC users uninstall Windows to replace it with Linux?

That said, the OS space is heating up. Last month’s news that the Open Handset Alliance added 14 new recruits really upped the prospects for Google in mobile. Two new Android phones have been unveiled; there could be dozens in 2009.

The news also revealed how willing vendors are to surrender control of the software in their devices. Take Sony Ericsson, which now supports Symbian, Windows and OHA.

2009 will be a massive year for Google, and especially for the Android Market content store. So far, its impact has been muted compared with the iPhone App Store, which has made available 10,000 apps in five months. Android Market managed 472 in five weeks. Clearly Apple had a much bigger run up (with iPhone out for a year before the store went live), but Google will expect serious acceleration in ‘09.

Advertisement

It should be confident. At present, all Android apps are free as there’s no payment system. But this will be fixed soon and should encourage ‘premium’ publishers onto the service (the revs are shared between operators and CPs too, so the networks will be keen). New device launches and the on-going lack of a restrictive approvals system should help too.

But, against this, Google must also factor in  piracy and quality issues. Android uses Java, and developers have told ME they fear the ease with which Java apps can have their protection removed. And ‘no approvals’ invites crappy products that don’t work properly.

So who’s going to pick up those customer care calls? Google? Operator? Publisher? Glad it’s not us.